GSW 120-127 MIN, December 12, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIN beat GSW 127-120, and MIN's shots were worth 116.7 points to GSW's 114.6.

GSW 120-127 MIN, December 12, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
GSW	96	103	96.4	17/22	18.2	120	114.6
MIN	89	107	95.5	20/28	21.2	127	116.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.