ORL 117-108 MIA, December 9, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat MIA 117-108, but MIA's shots were worth 114.9 points to ORL's 104.5.

ORL 117-108 MIA, December 9, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	87	103	91.5	14/16	13.0	117	104.5
MIA	93	92	99.6	16/19	15.3	108	114.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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