PHI 126-106 MIL, April 12, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. PHI beat MIL 126-106, but MIL's shots were worth 120.7 points to PHI's 114.2.

PHI 126-106 MIL, April 12, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHI	91	110	97.8	16/21	16.4	126	114.2
MIL	90	91	104.4	15/22	16.4	106	120.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.