PHX 105-119 HOU, April 7, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. HOU beat PHX 119-105, and HOU's shots were worth 127.1 points to PHX's 121.5.

PHX 105-119 HOU, April 7, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHX	75	71	89.3	34/39	32.2	105	121.5
HOU	100	104	114.7	15/16	12.4	119	127.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.