DAL 127-138 ORL, April 3, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat DAL 138-127, but DAL's shots were worth 128.3 points to ORL's 122.9.

DAL 127-138 ORL, April 3, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DAL	95	102	103.9	25/31	24.4	127	128.3
ORL	84	108	92.5	30/37	30.4	138	122.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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