MIA 129-147 BOS, April 1, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. BOS beat MIA 147-129, but MIA's shots were worth 115.2 points to BOS's 110.0.

MIA 129-147 BOS, April 1, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	95	112	96.8	17/23	18.4	129	115.2
BOS	96	133	94.7	14/20	15.4	147	110.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.