ORL 115-111 PHX, March 31, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat PHX 115-111, but PHX's shots were worth 122.0 points to ORL's 118.9.

ORL 115-111 PHX, March 31, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	79	80	85.4	35/41	33.5	115	118.9
PHX	88	84	94.2	27/35	27.9	111	122.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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