ORL 126-128 IND, March 23, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. IND beat ORL 128-126, but ORL's shots were worth 121.3 points to IND's 106.3.

ORL 126-128 IND, March 23, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	94	108	102.6	18/24	18.8	126	121.3
IND	82	106	88.0	22/24	18.3	128	106.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.