PHX 105-108 MIL, March 21, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat PHX 108-105, but PHX's shots were worth 113.7 points to MIL's 103.6.

PHX 105-108 MIL, March 21, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHX	89	95	99.8	10/18	13.9	105	113.7
MIL	78	94	87.7	14/21	15.9	108	103.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.