HOU 123-122 MIA, March 21, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat MIA 123-122, but MIA's shots were worth 110.6 points to HOU's 105.5.

HOU 123-122 MIA, March 21, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	86	106	89.1	17/21	16.4	123	105.5
MIA	92	110	97.7	12/16	12.8	122	110.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.