HOU 117-95 ATL, March 20, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. HOU beat ATL 117-95, and HOU's shots were worth 109.6 points to ATL's 105.6.

HOU 117-95 ATL, March 20, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	83	98	88.1	19/28	21.4	117	109.6
ATL	85	81	91.7	14/17	13.9	95	105.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.