DEN 129-93 HOU, March 11, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat HOU 129-93, but HOU's shots were worth 115.3 points to DEN's 109.5.

DEN 129-93 HOU, March 11, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	87	113	91.5	16/22	18.1	129	109.5
HOU	97	88	105.0	5/14	10.3	93	115.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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