PHX 118-116 NOP, March 6, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat NOP 118-116, but NOP's shots were worth 130.8 points to PHX's 124.2.

PHX 118-116 NOP, March 6, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
PHX90100104.918/2619.3118124.2
NOP8384101.232/3729.7116130.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.