HOU 113-115 GSW, March 5, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. GSW beat HOU 115-113, but HOU's shots were worth 110.3 points to GSW's 108.9.

HOU 113-115 GSW, March 5, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	96	102	98.5	11/15	11.9	113	110.3
GSW	94	104	97.3	11/15	11.6	115	108.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.