ORL 115-114 DAL, March 5, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. ORL beat DAL 115-114, and ORL's shots were worth 123.2 points to DAL's 112.5.

ORL 115-114 DAL, March 5, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	97	101	110.3	14/16	12.9	115	123.2
DAL	86	92	91.3	22/28	21.1	114	112.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.