ORL 126-109 WAS, March 3, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat WAS 126-109, but WAS's shots were worth 118.0 points to ORL's 117.1.

ORL 126-109 WAS, March 3, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	76	94	87.4	32/37	29.6	126	117.1
WAS	92	93	98.4	16/25	19.6	109	118.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.