GSW 101-129 LAL, February 28, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. LAL beat GSW 129-101, but GSW's shots were worth 112.4 points to LAL's 112.3.

GSW 101-129 LAL, February 28, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
GSW9194105.37/97.2101112.4
LAL9011596.814/2015.5129112.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.