MIA 115-105 HOU, February 28, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat HOU 115-105, but HOU's shots were worth 117.8 points to MIA's 113.4.

MIA 115-105 HOU, February 28, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	90	101	97.6	14/20	15.8	115	113.4
HOU	95	91	101.2	14/21	16.6	105	117.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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