HOU 125-105 UTA, February 23, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat UTA 125-105, but UTA's shots were worth 133.3 points to HOU's 106.0.

HOU 125-105 UTA, February 23, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	86	116	97.5	9/11	8.5	125	106.0
UTA	98	80	109.5	25/30	23.7	105	133.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.