HOU 102-95 LAC, February 10, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat LAC 102-95, but LAC's shots were worth 112.7 points to HOU's 97.4.

HOU 102-95 LAC, February 10, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
HOU798683.116/1814.310297.4
LAC888094.115/2318.695112.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.