MIN 138-116 ATL, February 9, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. MIN beat ATL 138-116, but ATL's shots were worth 130.6 points to MIN's 126.2.

MIN 138-116 ATL, February 9, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIN	92	126	111.5	12/21	14.7	138	126.2
ATL	99	94	109.4	22/28	21.2	116	130.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.