POR 125-130 PHX, February 3, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat POR 130-125, but POR's shots were worth 120.8 points to PHX's 113.1.

POR 125-130 PHX, February 3, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
POR	95	112	107.0	13/18	13.7	125	120.8
PHX	97	120	101.3	10/15	11.8	130	113.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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