MIA 115-127 ATL, February 3, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat MIA 127-115, but MIA's shots were worth 124.7 points to ATL's 118.7.

MIA 115-127 ATL, February 3, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	96	92	104.4	23/26	20.3	115	124.7
ATL	101	119	109.1	8/13	9.6	127	118.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.