IND 129-124 ATL, January 31, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. IND beat ATL 129-124, but ATL's shots were worth 116.9 points to IND's 108.5.

IND 129-124 ATL, January 31, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
IND8911191.418/2117.1129108.5
ATL9710394.921/2822.0124116.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.