MIA 118-125 CHI, January 31, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat MIA 125-118, but MIA's shots were worth 130.8 points to CHI's 112.3.

MIA 118-125 CHI, January 31, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	95	95	106.5	23/31	24.3	118	130.8
CHI	88	112	98.1	13/18	14.2	125	112.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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