WAS 109-99 MIL, January 29, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. WAS beat MIL 109-99, and WAS's shots were worth 123.7 points to MIL's 108.6.

WAS 109-99 MIL, January 29, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
WAS	96	84	101.7	25/28	22.0	109	123.7
MIL	98	92	101.8	7/9	6.8	99	108.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.