MIA 124-133 ORL, January 28, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. ORL beat MIA 133-124, and ORL's shots were worth 132.3 points to MIA's 119.2.

MIA 124-133 ORL, January 28, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	88	103	100.7	21/23	18.5	124	119.2
ORL	104	120	119.1	13/17	13.2	133	132.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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