DEN 107-109 DET, January 27, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. DET beat DEN 109-107, and DET's shots were worth 120.0 points to DEN's 114.3.

DEN 107-109 DET, January 27, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	84	90	94.9	17/23	19.4	107	114.3
DET	94	94	106.4	15/18	13.6	109	120.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.