MIL 123-99 DAL, March 31, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat DAL 123-99, but DAL's shots were worth 128.3 points to MIL's 124.7.

MIL 123-99 DAL, March 31, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	92	102	104.7	21/26	20.0	123	124.7
DAL	96	78	106.4	21/28	21.9	99	128.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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