MEM 122-124 ATL, January 21, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat MEM 124-122, but MEM's shots were worth 125.0 points to ATL's 121.0.

MEM 122-124 ATL, January 21, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MEM	93	98	103.0	24/27	21.9	122	125.0
ATL	92	106	102.3	18/24	18.6	124	121.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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