DEN 107-115 LAL, January 20, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. LAL beat DEN 115-107, and LAL's shots were worth 116.9 points to DEN's 109.5.

DEN 107-115 LAL, January 20, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	87	93	94.2	14/19	15.3	107	109.5
LAL	83	94	92.4	21/32	24.6	115	116.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.