UTA 127-122 MIN, January 20, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. UTA beat MIN 127-122, but MIN's shots were worth 126.0 points to UTA's 113.6.

UTA 127-122 MIN, January 20, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
UTA	87	108	93.3	19/26	20.3	127	113.6
MIN	100	102	105.7	20/27	20.3	122	126.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.