TOR 117-121 LAC, January 16, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. LAC beat TOR 121-117, but TOR's shots were worth 119.3 points to LAC's 113.9.

TOR 117-121 LAC, January 16, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
TOR879599.022/2620.3117119.3
LAC799589.726/3024.2121113.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.