MIA 127-121 PHX, January 13, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat PHX 127-121, but PHX's shots were worth 125.3 points to MIA's 122.9.

MIA 127-121 PHX, January 13, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	92	109	105.2	18/22	17.8	127	122.9
PHX	102	102	108.6	19/20	16.6	121	125.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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