GSW 111-124 ATL, January 11, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. ATL beat GSW 124-111, and ATL's shots were worth 116.4 points to GSW's 115.0.

GSW 111-124 ATL, January 11, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
GSW	90	94	97.5	17/21	17.4	111	115.0
ATL	94	107	96.9	17/25	19.5	124	116.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.