LAL 101-105 MIL, January 9, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat LAL 105-101, but LAL's shots were worth 109.1 points to MIL's 106.4.

LAL 101-105 MIL, January 9, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
LAL919398.48/1410.7101109.1
MIL798889.017/2217.4105106.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.