POR 103-102 HOU, January 7, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. POR beat HOU 103-102, but HOU's shots were worth 125.7 points to POR's 113.8.

POR 103-102 HOU, January 7, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
POR	83	84	94.2	19/25	19.5	103	113.8
HOU	99	82	102.5	20/29	23.2	102	125.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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