ATL 117-100 NOP, January 7, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. ATL beat NOP 117-100, and ATL's shots were worth 121.1 points to NOP's 117.2.

ATL 117-100 NOP, January 7, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	95	106	108.2	11/17	12.9	117	121.1
NOP	86	84	98.6	16/25	18.6	100	117.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.