LAC 103-102 GSW, January 5, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. LAC beat GSW 103-102, but GSW's shots were worth 122.1 points to LAC's 98.0.

LAC 103-102 GSW, January 5, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
LAC	77	84	81.7	19/21	16.3	103	98.0
GSW	92	80	99.8	22/27	22.3	102	122.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.