SAC 98-115 MIL, January 4, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIL beat SAC 115-98, and MIL's shots were worth 107.4 points to SAC's 103.8.

SAC 98-115 MIL, January 4, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
SAC	80	73	78.5	25/32	25.3	98	103.8
MIL	87	88	85.0	27/30	22.4	115	107.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.