MIA 125-106 NOP, January 4, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIA beat NOP 125-106, and MIA's shots were worth 129.9 points to NOP's 110.3.

MIA 125-106 NOP, January 4, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	101	112	116.0	13/18	13.9	125	129.9
NOP	90	100	104.0	6/8	6.3	106	110.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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