DAL 110-104 HOU, January 3, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. DAL beat HOU 110-104, but HOU's shots were worth 124.4 points to DAL's 102.3.

DAL 110-104 HOU, January 3, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
DAL809688.514/1813.8110102.3
HOU10692112.612/1511.9104124.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.