TOR 134-117 ATL, January 3, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. TOR beat ATL 134-117, and TOR's shots were worth 127.3 points to ATL's 117.6.

TOR 134-117 ATL, January 3, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
TOR	92	110	106.7	24/26	20.6	134	127.3
ATL	91	101	102.6	16/19	15.0	117	117.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.