NYK 99-111 ATL, January 2, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat NYK 111-99, but NYK's shots were worth 126.6 points to ATL's 117.7.

NYK 99-111 ATL, January 2, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
NYK9781109.618/2117.099126.6
ATL889698.315/2519.5111117.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.