TOR 103-106 DEN, December 31, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat TOR 106-103, but TOR's shots were worth 126.2 points to DEN's 117.7.

TOR 103-106 DEN, December 31, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
TOR	100	86	109.4	17/21	16.8	103	126.2
DEN	80	78	91.4	28/34	26.3	106	117.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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