ATL 126-102 MIN, December 31, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. ATL beat MIN 126-102, and ATL's shots were worth 127.1 points to MIN's 111.3.

ATL 126-102 MIN, December 31, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	104	118	115.1	8/16	12.0	126	127.1
MIN	87	88	97.2	14/18	14.2	102	111.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.