HOU 126-119 IND, December 29, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat IND 126-119, but IND's shots were worth 107.6 points to HOU's 103.8.

HOU 126-119 IND, December 29, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	83	108	85.7	18/24	18.1	126	103.8
IND	88	106	92.6	13/20	15.0	119	107.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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