MIA 147-123 DEN, December 29, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIA beat DEN 147-123, and MIA's shots were worth 129.7 points to DEN's 111.7.

MIA 147-123 DEN, December 29, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	99	128	111.6	19/23	18.0	147	129.7
DEN	89	105	94.6	18/22	17.1	123	111.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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