CHI 103-112 MIL, December 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat CHI 112-103, but CHI's shots were worth 118.7 points to MIL's 116.7.

CHI 103-112 MIL, December 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CHI	93	91	106.0	12/16	12.7	103	118.7
MIL	86	93	99.3	19/24	17.4	112	116.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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