MEM 125-104 MIL, December 26, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MEM beat MIL 125-104, and MEM's shots were worth 121.3 points to MIL's 109.1.

MEM 125-104 MIL, December 26, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MEM	85	99	95.0	26/32	26.3	125	121.3
MIL	84	86	89.9	18/24	19.1	104	109.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.